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寿县合兴钢结构浅谈市场仍存在小幅供应缺口

发布时间:2016-4-1 11:05:35 浏览次数:556

自去年四季度以来,房地产销售数据明显好转,相应地带动地产商资金回流,从而刺激了1—2月新开工和施工面积回暖,尤其是在建工程加速完工。从工程进度来测算,一般工程的主体周期大约是4—10个月。结合销售到施工的传导时间,我们推测出,今年上半年,地产对钢材的需求不会低于甚至好于去年同期。但是从后续可持续性来看,去年的拿地水平较低限制了今年新开工的后续增长,也就是说,在建工程完工后,地产对钢材需求大概率转差,时间上我们预计会在下半年。


Since the fourth quarter of last year, real estate sales data significantly improved, the corresponding return of the real estate business funds, thus stimulating the 1 - February new construction and construction area to pick up, especially in construction projects to accelerate the completion of. From the progress of the project to estimate, the main body of the project cycle is about 10 - 4 months. Combined with the sale to the construction of the conduction time, we speculate that the first half of this year, real estate demand for steel will not be less than even better than the same period last year. But from the point of view of subsequent sustainability, last year with level low limit the newly started this year, the subsequent growth. That is to say, in after the completion of the construction, real estate demand for steel about rate of slip, time we expect in the second half of the year.


今年一季度供应明显少于往年,这也是支撑一季度钢材价格大幅上涨的主要因素。同时,去年一二季度钢材供应过剩,也就是说,如果需求保持不变的话,今年的高炉开工不需要恢复到去年同期水平就基本可以达到供需平衡,一旦开工率达到去年同期水平,矛盾就会再次爆发。所以,我们试图去寻找全年的那个平衡点所对应的供应状况。


Supply was significantly less than in previous years, this is also a major factor in the first quarter to support a substantial increase in the price of steel. At the same time, the last 12 quarter steel oversupply, also is to say, if the demand remains unchanged, this year's blast furnace construction does not need to restore to the level of the same period last year basically can reach the balance of supply and demand, once the operating rate reached the level of the same period last year, contradictions will be broke out again. So, we're trying to find the balance point in the whole year.



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