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寿县合兴浅谈钢材季节性规律较往年明显

发布时间:2016-4-1 11:08:48 浏览次数:672

我们分别对今年需求在同比下降3%、持平、增加3%三种假设情况下做情景分析,可以得到以下数据:一是需求同比下降3%时,高炉开工率、粗钢重点日均、日均分别在81.48%、163.35万吨、205.6万吨时供需基本达到平衡;二是需求持平时,高炉开工率、粗钢重点日均、日均分别在84%、168.4万吨、212万吨时供需基本达到平衡;三是需求增长3%时,高炉开工率、粗钢重点日均、日均分别在82.6%、167.5万吨、218.4万吨时供需基本达到平衡。


The basic focus of basic key has basically reached the 163.35 81.48% respectively in demand this year fell 3%, flat, increase 3% three assumptions do scenario analysis, can get the following data: one is the demand fell 3%, blast furnace operating rate, crude steel daily, daily in million tons, 205.6 million tons of supply and demand balance; second is the demand to peacetime, blast furnace operating rate, crude steel daily, daily in 84% and 1.684 million tons, 212 million tons of supply and demand balance; the third is the demand growth of 3%, blast furnace operating rate, crude steel daily, daily in 82.6% and 16.75 million tons, 218.4 million tons of supply and demand balance.


目前的开工率、日均粗钢产量水平即使在需求同比下降3%的水平下尚不能达到盈亏平衡,这个供应缺口还会在短期内继续支撑钢价坚挺。3月以来,河北、山西等多处高炉陆续复产,但部分复产高炉正处于烘炉到满产的转换状态,预计3月下旬出铁水量才能明显增加。数据显示,截至3月18日,全国共有51座高炉恢复生产,总设计容积为48554立方米,按各高炉正常设计产能及利用系数测算,合计增加生铁供应14.7万吨/日。但是通过对比数据发现,粗钢日均产量仅较春节期间增长不到10万吨,也就是说,已经复产的高炉在3月下旬到4月上旬日均粗钢产量还有明显的增量空间。此外,随着钢厂盈利周期的拉长,西部地区多座高炉也计划在3月底、4月初复产。因此,综合预计复产高炉所带来的产量增加会在4月明显表现出来。


Cannot reach breakeven operating rate, the average daily crude steel output level even when demand fell by 3% of the current level, the supply gap will continue to support the strong steel prices in the short term. Since March, Hebei, Shanxi and other blast furnace resumption of production after another, but part of the resumption of production of blast furnace is in the oven to full conversion status of production, is expected in late March iron content can be increased significantly. Data show that as of March 18, a total of 51 blast furnaces to resume production, the total volume of the design for 48554 m3, according to the BF normal design capacity and the coefficient estimates, for a total increase of iron supply 14.7 million tons / day. But by comparison of the data found that the average daily output of crude steel only than during the Spring Festival growth less than 10 million tons, that is to say, has been the resumption of production of blast furnace in three to the average daily crude steel output in early April and obvious incremental space of late last month. In addition, with the mills profit cycle stretched, many blast furnaces of western region also plans in 3, by the end of 4 early resumption of production. Therefore, the comprehensive production is expected to increase the yield of blast furnace was in April.


除了复产高炉,还需对现产高炉和短流程炼钢特别说明,由于当前炼钢利润空间大,钢厂纷纷提高入炉矿粉的品位来增加铁水产量,再加上短流程炼钢的显著回升,使得日均粗钢回升速度将大于高炉开工率的回升,因而,在比较过程中,上文提到的三个条件中不需要完全满足就能达到平衡,建议投资者更多地关注日均粗钢产量的增加。


In addition to the resumption of production of blast furnace, still need to produced in the blast furnace and the short flow steelmaking special note, due to the current steelmaking profit margins high, steel mills have increased in the grade of furnace slag to increase the production of hot metal, coupled with short flow steelmaking rebounded significantly, the average daily crude steel, picks up speed will be greater than the blast furnace operating rate of recovery. Therefore, in the comparison process, three conditions mentioned above don't need fully meet would be balanced, recommended investors more attention to the increase of average daily crude steel production.



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