寿县合兴浅谈钢材季节性规律较往年明显发布时间：2016/4/1 11:08:48 浏览次数:804
The basic focus of basic key has basically reached the 163.35 81.48% respectively in demand this year fell 3%, flat, increase 3% three assumptions do scenario analysis, can get the following data: one is the demand fell 3%, blast furnace operating rate, crude steel daily, daily in million tons, 205.6 million tons of supply and demand balance; second is the demand to peacetime, blast furnace operating rate, crude steel daily, daily in 84% and 1.684 million tons, 212 million tons of supply and demand balance; the third is the demand growth of 3%, blast furnace operating rate, crude steel daily, daily in 82.6% and 16.75 million tons, 218.4 million tons of supply and demand balance.
Cannot reach breakeven operating rate, the average daily crude steel output level even when demand fell by 3% of the current level, the supply gap will continue to support the strong steel prices in the short term. Since March, Hebei, Shanxi and other blast furnace resumption of production after another, but part of the resumption of production of blast furnace is in the oven to full conversion status of production, is expected in late March iron content can be increased significantly. Data show that as of March 18, a total of 51 blast furnaces to resume production, the total volume of the design for 48554 m3, according to the BF normal design capacity and the coefficient estimates, for a total increase of iron supply 14.7 million tons / day. But by comparison of the data found that the average daily output of crude steel only than during the Spring Festival growth less than 10 million tons, that is to say, has been the resumption of production of blast furnace in three to the average daily crude steel output in early April and obvious incremental space of late last month. In addition, with the mills profit cycle stretched, many blast furnaces of western region also plans in 3, by the end of 4 early resumption of production. Therefore, the comprehensive production is expected to increase the yield of blast furnace was in April.
In addition to the resumption of production of blast furnace, still need to produced in the blast furnace and the short flow steelmaking special note, due to the current steelmaking profit margins high, steel mills have increased in the grade of furnace slag to increase the production of hot metal, coupled with short flow steelmaking rebounded significantly, the average daily crude steel, picks up speed will be greater than the blast furnace operating rate of recovery. Therefore, in the comparison process, three conditions mentioned above don't need fully meet would be balanced, recommended investors more attention to the increase of average daily crude steel production.